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Tricklar blog

Mercadolibre (Meli) : Latin America

It was no more than six months ago that Mercadolibre's (MELI) share price was languishing in the dumps as a direct result of the perceived threat of Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) more concerted market entry into the Brazilian e-commerce market.

While my view of Amazons long time success in the Latin American market is certainly more bearish, it’s true that near term implications of a concerted market entry push would serve to depress MELI's near term cash flow generation and profitability.

While I don’t intend to divest my position, investors purchasing at this price should be cautious given the overhang of Amazon and factors specific to the Latin American market.

(NASDAQ:MELI) isn't exactly a household name, at least not to investors in the U. S. For those who live in Latin America, however, the company is the largest player in the region, tapping into the massive migration from brick-and-mortar stores to online sales. Impressive sales growth promoted investor confidence and pushed the company's share price to record highs despite a couple of quarterly earnings misses and the looming threat posed by an online-retail giant. The stock gave up that ground following MercadoLibre's next earnings report in August as net income dropped 66% year over year to reach $5. 3 million for the June-ended quarter, but prices bounced back in September with the help of positive ratings coverage. MELI data by YCharts In October, a note from a Goldman Sachs analyst indicated that Amazon. com's push into the Brazilian market would have a significant negative impact on MercadoLibre's sales volume and margins. A positive ratings note from a Piper Jaffray analyst in December helped the stock record another month of double-digit gains, and MercadoLibre ended the year with its share price having more than doubled.

Technical Analysis Summary: 12 Jan

BULLISH:--->

  • [BULLISH]: Mercadolibre IncElder Ray Index is signalling a Bullish movementERI is 13. 296 indicating bull power. Prices are being driven above the consensus of value for MELI during the last trading session [Buying Pressure]
  • MELI: Elders Force Index Current Signal -> (1) 12 Jan: BULLISH (2) 12 Jan: BULLISH (3) 12 Jan: BULLISH
  • MELI: CLOSE Recent Trading -> (1) 12 Jan: 342. 47 (2) 11 Jan: 342. 02 (3) 10 Jan: 339. 55
  • Mercadolibre Inc has broken the first resistance point ($345. 324) [Bullish]. Look for a long limit order entry near this point. Exit price for MELI should be set @$348. 177 & Stoploss for Mercadolibre Inc should be set between $335. 157 & $332. 304
  • [BULLISH]: Mercadolibre Inc has a medium timeframe uptrend confirmation. This was confirmed through a price breakout on the Jan 10 2018.
  • MELI: Chaikin Oscillator Current Signal -> (1) 12 Jan: BULLISH CROSSOVER (2) 12 Jan: NEUTRAL (3) 12 Jan: BULLISH
  • Green Brick Partners has broken the first DeMark support point ($10. 7375) [Bearish]. Look for a short limit order entry near this point. Exit price for GRBK should be set @$10. 575 & short position stoploss for Green Brick Partners should be set at $11. 125
  • [BULLISH]: Mercadolibre Inc is currently Oversold highlighting the potential for a short term trend reversal in the upward direction.
  • Mercadolibre Inc current pivot point Camarilla is: $341. 667. The current resistance levels are: (R1) $370. 942: (R2) $399. 415: (R3) $427. 887: (R4) $513. 303The current support levels are: (S1) $313. 998: (S2) $285. 526: (S3) $257. 053: (S4) $171. 637


BEARISH:--->

  • [BEARISH CROSSOVER]: Mercadolibre Inc current price has driven Commodity Channel Index to become overbought signalling the start of bearish trading conditions. Currently, the CCI is 134. During the quarter, the highest CCI value was 160. The last overbought signal occurred on Dec 20 2017
  • MELI: Range today versus range yesterday Current Signal ->(1) 12 Jan: BULLISH (2) 12 Jan: BEARISH (3) 12 Jan: BEARISH
  • [BEARISH CROSSOVER]: Mercadolibre Inc currently has negative rate of change of -42%. This means the current volume is less than the price 14 days ago and therefore losing momentum. Currently, the return on momentum is 0. 1%.

 

 

 

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